Thick modelling income and wealth effects: a forecast application to euro area private consumption

Abstract

This study develops a thick modelling tool for real private consumption, with a conditional forecasting application to the euro area. Several equations from thousands of error correction models, always including labour income, non-labour income, financial wealth and non-financial wealth as determinants, are selected from predetermined in-sample and out-of-sample criteria. Our thick model estimates show that income effects differ between labour and non-labour income and that their (relative) importance varies over time. This implies that labour and non-labour income should both be on the radar of policy makers and modellers.