Thermal tolerance, safety margins and vulnerability of coastal species: Projected impact of climate change induced cold water variability in a temperate African region

Abstract

Anthropogenic induced climate change is predicted to increase the thermal variability in coastal waters, which can have strong physiological effects on individuals and populations of marine ectotherms. The magnitude and direction of these thermal effects varies depending on species, life stage, biogeography, habitat and season. This study aimed to compare the thermal tolerance of a range of juvenile fish and adult macro-invertebrates from intertidal and estuarine habitats in a warm-temperate, thermally variable region on the south-east coast of South Africa. Seasonal variability in thermal tolerance was compared between species, taxonomic groups, biogeographical distribution and habitat affinity and related to existing and projected water temperature data to gauge the local vulnerability of each species. Critical thermal maximum (CTmax), critical thermal minimum (CTmin), thermal breadths and scopes, and the thermal safety margins of each species were quantified. The greatest differences in thermal tolerance patterns were based on taxonomy, with macro-invertebrates having broader thermal tolerance compared to fish, with the exception of the Cape sea urchin, in both summer and winter. Relatively narrow lower breadths in tolerance and safety margin values for transient juvenile sub-tropical and temperate fish species from the intertidal rocky low-shore habitat were observed in both summer and winter. This indicates that these fish species and the Cape sea urchin may be more vulnerable to projected increases in cold temperature (upwelling in summer) than warm temperature variability in this warm-temperate region if they are unable to seek thermal habitat refuge.