Thermal rating probability prediction considering the temporal correlation among the thermal ratings

Abstract

The thermal rating of the overhead transmission line is an important parameter for the operation and control of the power system. In order to further integrate it into the system dispatch decisions, it is necessary to conduct the prediction for the thermal ratings in the lookahead time horizon of dispatch decisions. At present, the researches on the thermal rating prediction focus on the independent prediction for the thermal rating in each prediction period, without considering the temporal correlation among the thermal ratings. In this paper, a joint probability prediction method for multiperiod thermal ratings considering the temporal correlation among the thermal ratings is proposed. Specifically, based on the temporal correlation among the thermal ratings and the independent probability prediction of thermal rating in each period, the multivariate normal probability density function of multiperiod thermal ratings is generated. The prediction simulation shows that considering the temporal correlation among the thermal ratings in the thermal rating prediction process can improve the prediction results and make full use of the currentcarrying capability of overhead lines, which will promote the accommodation of renewable energy and energy saving and emission reduction.