Abstract

The prediction input variables of the thermal rating (TR) prediction model are commonly historical TRs and relevant meteorological data. However, compared with meteorological elements, intermediate variables obtained in the calculation of the TR including convective heat loss, radiated heat loss and solar heat gain usually have a stronger correlation with the TR. Therefore, this paper proposes a TR probability prediction method with improved prediction input, replacing meteorological elements with intermediate variables as input variables of the quantile regression neural network (QRNN) model to perform TR probability prediction. Finally, the prediction simulation is also conducted to validate the performance of the TR prediction method with improved prediction input.

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