There is still time to reconcile forest management with climate-driven declines in habitat suitability for boreal caribou

Abstract

Many boreal populations of woodland caribou in Canada are declining, mainly due to the prevalence of anthropogenic disturbances which alter predator-prey dynamics. Climate change is expected to exert an additional negative influence on caribou populations in coming decades, but it is unclear whether or how human activities and climate change will interact to influence habitat suitability for caribou, and how important these agents of change will be relative to each other. In this study, we used the LANDIS-II forest landscape model to forecast boreal caribou habitat suitability across its distribution within the harvestable boreal forest in Québec for the period 2020–2100, under three increasing anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (baseline, Representative Concentration Pathways [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5), and two contrasting harvest scenarios (with and without harvest). Our simulations revealed that harvesting was the dominant agent explaining future variations in caribou habitat suitability, although climate change also decreased habitat suitability, especially under RCP 8.5. Climate-induced decreases in habitat suitability mostly originated from increases in wildfires that burned mature conifer-dominated forests, i.e., high-quality habitat for caribou. Habitat suitability by 2100 was also predicted to vary spatially, with the northeastern and northwestern parts of the study area supporting better caribou habitat conditions regardless of scenarios. We show that reducing harvest activities in areas where habitat suitability is currently high could help maintain high-quality caribou habitat even under the most intense climate change scenario. Our results also suggest that highly-disturbed regions which currently provide low-quality habitat may not improve in the future unless active habitat restoration is performed. Our study helps disentangle the potential future effects of forest management and climate change as threats to caribou habitat, emphasizing the urgency of reconciling forest management with the conservation of this species at risk in Canada.