There is Nothing Magical about Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction to Epistemic Probabilities in Data Analysis for Psychology Starters

Abstract

This paper is a reader-friendly introduction to Bayesian inference applied to psychological science. We begin by explaining the difference between frequentist and epistemic interpretations of probability that underpin respectively frequentist and Bayesian statistics. We use a concrete example—a student wondering whether s/he carries the virus statisticus malignum—to explain how both approaches are different one from another. We illustrate Bayesian inference with intuitive examples, before introducing the mathematical framework. Different schools of thoughts and recommendations are discussed to illustrate how to use priors in Bayes Factor testing. We discuss how psychology could benefit from a greater reliance on Bayesian methods. Finally, we illustrate how to compute Bayes Factors analyses with real data and provide the R code.