Abstract
A theory of psychiatric treatment systems may be approached using stochastic probability models. Theory construction proceeds in six stages corresponding to broad assumptions about the causal relationships among variables affecting the life course and treatment encounters of members of a target population. The theory is progressively refined to describe short-term life changes, longer-term life-course modifiers, predictors of treatment utilization, treatment system policies, and treatment effects. The ultimate aim is to forecast the effects of policy change.
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