Theory of earthquakes ? IV. General implications for earthquake prediction

Abstract

The scale invariant inclusion theory of failure is applied to the general problem of precursors that precede failure. A precursor is defined to be an effect produced within a physical system which indicates that the process leading to failure of the system has begun. Precursors are grouped into three classes.Class I precursors refer to long-term indicators of impending failure. These may includevp/vs, long-term tilt, and crustal uplift anomalies observed to precede some major shallow earthquakes by afew years. Class II precursors refer to short-term indicators of failure and include: S-bend tilt, electromagnetic radiation, radon emanations, and seismicity changes that have been reported to precede major earthquakes by afew hours. Class III precursors refer tovery short-termphenomena such as long-period (strain) waves,rapid changes in surface ground tilts, and seismicity increase in the hypocentral region that are predicted by the inclusion theory to precede major shallow earthquakes by afew seconds.