Abstract
We have developed and tested an evidence‐based method for early‐stage identification of scientific discoveries. Scholarly publications are analyzed to track and trace breakthrough processes as well as their impact on world science. The focus in this study is on the incremental discovery of the ubiquitin‐mediated proteolytic system in the late 1970s by a small international team of collaborating researchers. Analysis of their groundbreaking research articles, all produced within a relatively short period of time, and the network of citing articles shows the cumulative effects of the intense collaboration within a small group of researchers working on the same subject. Using bibliographic data from the Web of Science database and the PATSTAT patents database in combination with expert opinions shows that these discoveries accumulated into a new technology. These first findings suggest that potential breakthrough discoveries can be identified at a relatively early stage by careful analysis of publication and citation patterns.
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