Theory and Estimation of the Demand for Imports of Consumer Goods

Abstract

Despite the abundance of literature on time-series estimation of impact demand relationships, several important theoretical problems have not treated adequately in major references on the subject, and empirical work in this area remains conceptually deficient. The purpose of this paper is to focus on specification problems that, to our knowledge, have not been adequately recognized, and to attempt to resolve a number of these. We present estimates of quarterly levels of U.S. imports for three types of consumer goods: foods, feeds and beverages from (1959 I through 1972 IV), consumer nondurables, excluding foods (1965 I - 1972 IV), and consumer durables, excluding automotive products (1961 I - 1972 IV).