Theories of budgetary tradeoffs

Abstract

The literature on defense-welfare tradeoffs has not been characterized by an emphasis on theory development. Indeed, most work has concentrated on using increasingly sophisticated statistical techniques to isolate empirical relationships in spending data on various countries. Unfortunately, however, this empirical enterprise has proven inconclusive, with some studies finding trade-offs and others not. In this paper, we suggest that a greater focus on theory development may help to resolve some of the empirical conflicts in this literature. In particular, we argue that there are at least two substantial bodies of theoretical work available that, while relevant to guns-butter questions, have remained to a large extent unexploited. One conclusion that we draw from this exercise is that the discussion of tradeoffs should probably move away form its current focus on primarily direct exchanges between spending on guns and butter, and instead begin to explore more indirect links which are acting through the economy.