Theoretical-probablic approach to the modeling of uncertainty in economic activity from the perspective of the historical path of its development

Abstract

The article is devoted to the problem of modeling uncertainty in the field of economics and business based on probability theory. Specifically, the purpose of the study was to review the features, potential and limitations of probability theory as a means of quantitative analysis and modeling of uncertainty in economic activity from the point of view of the historical path of its formation and development. As part of this, the key events of the origin and development of probability theory, key aspects of substantiating its logical foundations and building it as a purely mathematical discipline were considered. Particular attention was paid to the issue of distinguishing between stochastic and non-stochastic uncertainty in the plane of practical situations of economic decision-making. As one of the important methodological emphases of the work, the thesis that when the situation of making an economic decision is burdened by non-stochastic uncertainty of one or another origin, it is justified and useful to turn to an expert approach. At the same time, the theory of subjective probabilities, the theory of fuzzy sets, and interval analysis stand out as the system-forming components of the theoretical basis of the latter.