Theoretical interruption model for reliability assessment of power supply systems

Abstract

This study introduces a new theoretical interruption model for assessing more accurately the moment in time when interruptions of electricity customers are likely to occur. Recordings of short and long interruptions from two power supply systems are analysed and the similarity between their patterns is identified and then used to introduce a general interruption probability distribution model, defined in stages as multi-zone theoretical curves. The effectiveness of the proposed theoretical interruption model is firstly verified for a basic test system supplying an aggregate load point whose power profiles (residential, commercial, industrial and mixed load) are engaged in assessing the energy not supplied, and afterwards for a typical UK power supply system consisting of about 15 000 electricity customers. The results show that a correct representation of the moment of interruption performed with the proposed model leads to completely different results than those obtained based on the conventional assumption that the time when interruption occurs is given by a known probability distribution. Moreover, comparisons against reported figures of reliability indices determine the most suitable probability distribution that shall be used to model the initial conditions of the Monte Carlo simulation and accompany the proposed theoretical model throughout the simulation process.