THEORETICAL GROUNDS OF ASSESSING THE PROBABILITY OF AN ENTERPRISE BANKRUPTCY UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THE PANDEMIC AND ITS IMPACT ON EXPORT-IMPORT OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The purpose of the work is to study the transformation of the concept of bankruptcy in Ukraine and the world in pandemic conditions, carrying out econometric modeling of exports and imports and taking into account seasonal fluctuations and their forecasting. Methodology. The paper considers the legal settlement of the grounds, procedures and consequences of the debtor’s insolvency. The concept of “bankruptcy” is used in many socio-political and natural sciences where it is given its own interpretation. The most typical definitions of the concept of “bankruptcy” that occur in foreign and domestic scientific publications are considered. Studying the chronology of the “bankruptcy” concept interpretation allows us to assess the change of positions and approaches to understanding its essence. It is emphasized that bankruptcy should be investigated as a method of anticrisis management. The classification of bankruptcy on various grounds is considered. Introductions in the regulatory framework concerning bankruptcy are considered. Econometric modeling has shown that the exports and imports of goods, works and services of Ukraine has a general tendency to decrease and seasonal fluctuations have a significant impact on them. Practical implications. Introductions into the regulatory framework concerning bankruptcy, namely the procedure for the out-of-court recovery and the procedure for initiating a simplified bankruptcy procedure of the debtor, are liquidated by the owner. These provisions make it possible to make national insolvency and bankruptcy legislation more flexible and adapt it to European legislation. Particular attention is paid to legal relations associated with bankruptcy, which are governed by a number of regulations of different legal force that together constitute a separate institution in the system of economic legislation. The analysis of bankrupt enterprises in Ukraine in 2016–2019 revealed that most enterprises in Ukraine went bankrupt in 2016, the least – in 2019, i.e., there is a downward trend in this indicator, which indicated a gradual improvement in Ukraine’s economic situation. Most companies went bankrupt in February 2017, the least – in November 2019. Based on econometric modeling, the forecast of exports and imports is determined and, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, we determine their values for each quarter of 2021–2023. The largest volume of exports falls on the third quarter, while the largest volume of imports – on the fourth. As a result of the study, based on the analysis of the dynamics of exports, imports and gross domestic product of Ukraine during 2010–2020, it was found that exports and imports of goods and services had a general tendency to decrease. Value/originality. Effective management of export-import operations is impossible without a science-based approach to solving a set of problems of their information support. In a pandemic, businesses need to respond quickly to environmental conditions. Risks arising from quarantine measures need to be minimized immediately. The analysis of the dynamics of exports, imports, gross domestic product of Ukraine during 2010–2020 revealed that the balance of foreign economic transactions, in particular the value of exports of goods and services, has a significant impact on Ukraine’s gross domestic product. The constructed econometric model of dependence of GDP upon exports and imports of Ukraine is adequate (determination coefficient is 0.963). It is substantiated that with the increase in exports by UAH 1 million, gross domestic product will decrease by UAH 11.89 million provided that the remaining factors remain unchanged. If the volume of imports is increased by UAH 1 million, the gross domestic product will increase by UAH 4.51 million. provided that the remaining factors stay unchanged. The values of the coefficients of import dependence and export coverage of imports were analyzed and it was noted that these indicators significantly exceed the allowable level during almost the entire study period. The negative balance of export-import operations in 2010–2020 also indicates some imbalances in Ukraine’s foreign trade relations. During 2014–2020, there was a reverse, unfavorable for Ukraine trend of lower value of exports of goods and services compared to their imports. Note that the best values do not always match.