Theoretical exploration of behavioral change in disease control: Sex work as a case study for HSV-2 transmission dynamics

Abstract

Currently, there are non effective vaccines that prevents herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) and the recommended treatments are sub-optimal, that implies other methods can be employed in an attempt to reduce the prevalence of the disease. To address this, we developed a new deterministic mathematical model that seeks to investigate HSV-2 transmission dynamics, emphasizing the role of risky sexual behaviors in the form of sex work. The reproduction number and the equilibria states of the model were determined and their stabilities analyzed. Our analysis identified key transmission parameters, allowing us to forecast possible disease spread patterns and to evaluate the impact of behavioral change to complement sub-optimal treatment and vaccine absence. Our model managed to highlight the importance of behavior change, especially among latent individuals, suggesting the need for combined preventive strategies of behavior change and treatment. The results also indicated that the virus can still spread even in the absence of high-risk sexual behaviors like sex workers, implying that other hidden factors influencing HSV-2 transmission. Our results emphasize on the multi-layered challenge of HSV-2 control and the need for comprehensive strategies addressing both the disease spread and associated high-risk behaviors.