Theoretical and technical assessment of agroforestry residue potential for electricity generation in Brazil towards 2050

Abstract

Bioeconomy, as a key strategic innovation pillar, supports energy transition and involves biomass resource assessment and its application. Biomass has an enormous potential to fulfil the domestic energy demand in Brazil. Hence, this study aims to quantify the theoretical, technical and techno-economic potential of agricultural and forestry residues to generate electricity via thermochemical processes in Brazil for the 2018–2050 timeframe. The analysis was carried out via an integrated approach, according to statistical reports and literature data. Conversion technologies for the estimation of technical potential consist of organic rankine cycle, combustion with conventional rankine cycle and gasification with an internal combustion engine. The results showed that Brazil’s theoretical potential is 7185.39 PJ and 16,708.12 PJ in 2018 and 2050. The technical potential in 2018 is 1795.16 PJ, generating 71,236.47 MWe, while the potential in 2050 is projected as 5771.49.4 PJ providing 229,027.31 MWe. The main restrictions are dispersed distribution of biomass over a large area, supply costs, and low efficiencies for energy conversion. Therefore, the techno-economic potential is around 19,704.01 MWe and 63,348.95 MWe for 2018 and 2050. The north region has the lowest electricity generation potential, while the southeast region takes a prominent position to generate electricity mainly from sugarcane residues. Levelized costs of electricity values varied from 10.532 to 15.507 US$/MWh for 2018 and from 7.320 to 13.002 US$/MWh for 2050, which highly influenced by the biomass price. The results of this study can support policy-making towards future planning on Brazilian bioenergy.