Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)

Andrea Bevilacqua,Alessandro Aiuppa,Melida Schliz,Alvaro Aravena,Raffaello Cioni,Eduardo Gutiérrez,Demetrio Escobar,Augusto Neri

doi:10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021

Abstract

Abstract. The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them and their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (∼2.4 million people) and Managua (∼1.4 million people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. In particular, we present thematic vent opening maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic density currents, ejection of ballistic projectiles, and low-intensity pyroclastic fallout. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) the location of past vents, (2) the mapping of the main fault structures, and (3) the eruption styles of past events, obtained from critical analysis of the literature and/or inferred from volcanic deposits and morphological features observed remotely and in the field. To illustrate the effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents derived from phreatomagmatic activity or from low-intensity magmatic volcanism. For the numerical simulation of these phenomena we adopted the recently developed branching energy cone model by using the program ECMapProb. Our results show that the implementation of thematic vent opening maps can produce significantly different hazard levels from those estimated with traditional, non-thematic maps.

Highlights

Volcanic hazard assessment is typically influenced by eruption style and the associated eruptive phenomena
We have presented vent opening probability maps for two Central American volcanic systems: the San Salvador volcanic complex and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex
Canic fields present some features that make the availability of this tool critical for the design and implementation of volcanic risk mitigation procedures: (1) they are next to highly inhabited cities, i.e., San Salvador (2.4 million people) and Managua (1.4 million people), respectively; (2) they present a significant variability in vent position; and (3) they produced a number of different types of eruption style

Summary

Introduction

Volcanic hazard assessment is typically influenced by eruption style and the associated eruptive phenomena (e.g., pyroclastic fallout, ballistic projectiles, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows). A widely adopted methodology for assessing volcanic hazard is based on the determination and analysis of a number of expectable eruptive scenarios (e.g., Newhall and Hoblitt, 2002; Cioni et al, 2008; Neri et al, 2008; Martí et al, 2012; Ferrés et al, 2013; Newhall and Pallister, 2015; Wright et al, 2019). These scenarios are commonly based on the characteristics of past eruptions, while their potential effects on the surrounding area can be eval-. They require the availability of a detailed dataset of geological and volcanological information (Marzocchi and Bebbington, 2012; Connor et al, 2015; Németh and Kereszturi, 2015)

Methods

Discussion

Conclusion