The ZeroGen project — Managing risk and uncertainty

Abstract

The paper discusses managing risk and uncertainty and presents a discussion based on the engineering prefeasibility studies and storage exploratory, appraisal program. Here, just three areas of mainly technical risk and uncertainty are discussed relating to technology integration, to IGCC site choice and infrastructure and to GHG storage. Technology integration risks and uncertainties are managed primarily through carefully designed agreement structures and close-in ZeroGen engagements which enable very early information sharing, collaboration and integration between technology providers especially on mass and heat balance issues. Site choice and infrastructure are managed first by a critical technical assurance test on coal quality, followed ranking of differential NPV vs. site-specific non-financial risks using multi-criteria analysis. A distinction is made in the type and level of cost, risk and uncertainty in maturing a storage resource i.e. between lower cost, higher uncertainty storage and higher cost, relatively lower risk and uncertainty plant. For the former, the main focus is the definition and quantification of uncertainty. In the latter, risk and uncertainty reduction are the focuses and are more amenable to creative engineered and commercial solutions. This higher implicit uncertainty at the relatively low cost side of the project may lead to the development of stage gate “tests“based on confidence levels in required storage performance prior to making larger plant investment decisions.