The youth bulge

Abstract

Chapter 18, by Zafiris Tzannatos, also examines the Arab Spring but from a different perspective. These tumultuous uprisings are often ascribed in the literature to the role played by the youth bulge in the demographic structure of the Arab countries. Tzannatos juxtaposes the case of the demographic youth bulge and high youth unemployment versus structural reasons as causes for these uprisings. He argues that the youth bulge was practically over at least a decade before the uprisings, youth unemployment had been reduced more than adult unemployment during the preceding two decades and discontent arising from the liberalising economic reforms pursued since the 1990s was generalised across the population, not just the youth. This despite the fact that the reforms reduced the deficit, debt and inflation while economic and employment rates accelerated from their low rates during the ‘lost’ decade of the 1980s. However, the reforms were implemented in a way that their benefits were captured by few insiders. Overall, evidence lends support to more complex economic, institutional and political explanations for the uprisings than demographic ones, especially those centring on the youth. Tzannatos argues that for policy purposes, future approaches should first focus on improving the functioning of the macroeconomy and its ability to create inclusive growth. Hence, youth and adult issues should be examined together, rather than routinely attributing the underperformance of labour markets to the low quality and relevance of education or school-to-work transition issues, both of which can always be improved and not only in the Arab countries.