The Your Disease Risk Index for Colorectal Cancer Is an Inaccurate Risk Stratification Tool for Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia at Screening Colonoscopy

Abstract

Tailoring the use of screening colonoscopy based on the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) could optimize the cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Our goal was to assess the accuracy of the Your Disease Risk (YDR) CRC risk index for stratifying average risk patients into low- versus intermediate/high-risk categories for ACN. The YDR risk assessment tool was administered to 3,317 asymptomatic average risk patients 50 to 79 years of age just before their screening colonoscopy. Associations between YDR-derived relative risk (RR) scores and ACN prevalence were examined using logistic regression and χ(2) analyses. ACN was defined as a tubular adenoma ≥1 cm, tubulovillous or villous adenoma of any size, and the presence of high-grade dysplasia or cancer. The overall prevalence of ACN was 5.6%. Although YDR-derived RR scores were linearly associated with ACN after adjusting for age and gender (P = 0.033), the index was unable to discriminate "below average" from "above/average" risk patients [OR, 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-1.37]. Considerable overlap in rates of ACN was also observed between the different YDR risk categories in our age- and gender-stratified analyses. The YDR index lacks accuracy for stratifying average risk patients into low- versus intermediate/high-risk categories for ACN.