Abstract
With the advent of 2022, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has weakened, the US labor market has recovered, and inflation has been severe, creating the conditions for the Fed to tighten its policies. At the same time, cryptocurrencies as a hot topic in recent years; ETH is one of the most popular cryptocurrencies in the market; this article aims to assess the impact of the Fed's raised interest rates on the yield and volatility of cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH) based on data on the ETH price and the US dollar/CNY exchange rate since 2022. And further, simulate the impact on the overall cryptocurrency market. This paper constructs VAR and ARMA-GARCH models to analyze ETH returns and volatility variations. The results of these models suggest that the exchange rate rise triggered by the Fed's rate hike has had a negative impact on ETH yields and increased the volatility of its returns. Further, this article recommends that investors should adjust their portfolios according to their risk appetite in an uncertain market environment.
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