THE WORLD-SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND THE REALITIES OF OUR TIME

Abstract

The article analyzes the main provisions of the world-system theory from the point of view of its applicability to the consideration of the global situation surrounding the Russian-Ukrainian war. Also, the authors apply the methodology of world system analysis when studying the factor of geopolitical hegemony and the possible change of hegemon in the first half of the 21st century. In the context of the analysis of modern geopolitical conflicts, is considered I. Wallerstein’s hypothesis about a series of so-called “thirty-year wars” as immediate “drivers” of the change of hegemon and the world order, established by him. The article updates such concepts as “cycles of hegemony”, the overlap of “cyclical rhythms” and “century trends”, the correlation between “Kondratiev’s cycles” and “cycles of hegemony”, the ascending and descending cycles of “century trends”, etc. The analysis of the I. Wallerstein ideas is supplemented by the analysis of the views of F. Brodel, J. Modelsky, U. Thompson, J. Arrigy, T. Hopkins, and others. The authors conclude that predicting the development of the new world order is a difficult task and that it is still difficult to assess whether this new world order will be “better” or “worse” than the existing one. To explain this, the authors point to the unnamed nature of the epic struggle between “Good and Evil” and the physical process of “mutual resistance and mutual displacement of forces”. In this struggle, according to the authors, the winner is not the “kindest” but the “most effective”. The authors call February 24, 2022, the signal for the beginning of the great redistribution. This date became the starting point in the battle for global domination of any of the world systems without a guaranteed outcome. The authors pray for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.