The World In 2021

Abstract

The World In 2021 Kevin O’Rourke With the dawning of 2021 some of us are experiencing an emotion that has become unfamiliar recently: optimism. The four long years of the Trump presidency are over. Instead of a deeply troubled egotist incapable of empathy and devoid of humour, the most powerful nation in the West – if not necessarily the world – is going to have as president a competent, consensual politician and a manifestly decent man. Thanks to the extraordinary talent and unselfish work of many thousands of scientists, there is hope that Covid-19 will soon be defeated and that our lives can return to something like normality. And, closer to home, the long-running saga of the UK’s exit from the European Union has finally come to an end, for better or worse. The deal is a pretty thin one, and many people’s lives will be damaged by it, but at least we know what the situation is and can begin to adjust to the new reality. There is something to be said for that too. At the same time, many of the underlying problems that gave rise to Trump and Brexit are still with us and Covid-19 has laid bare a host of others. Another reason for optimism, perhaps, since problems that are hidden are generally not solved. And perhaps Trump’s departure will allow us to debate some of these issues in a less ideologically charged atmosphere. The 2016 Brexit referendum, and the US presidential election that followed, were closely fought affairs. People voted to leave the European Union, or voted for Trump, for diverse reasons, and when the margins of victory are as tight as they were it makes little sense to seek to prioritise one reason over all others. Every one mattered. It would be wrong to deny the role of nationalism, xenophobia, and outright racism in the upheavals of 2016, but it would be equally ideological to deny that rising inequality, both between classes and between regions, was also at play, or that globalisation was one factor underlying that trend. There now exists abundant empirical evidence, produced by social scientists with no ideological axe to grind, showing a link between rising imports from China, poorer employment and income outcomes, and growing political polarisation.1 It doesn’t follow that President Trump was right to start trade wars, or undermine the World Trade Studies • volume 110 • number 437 11 Organisation, but neither should we hide our heads in the sand and pretend that the problems he benefited from electorally do not exist. Indeed,2020hasrevealedindramaticfashionthedepthoftheseinequalities. We have all seen how poorer workers have had no alternative but to work in dangerous conditions, putting their health in danger, and we have also seen how precarious their jobs and salaries can be. In sharp contrast, people like myself were able to work from home during the lockdowns of 2020, still drawing stable incomes, and protecting themselves and their loved ones from the virus. We have also seen that it is these lower paid workers upon whom society ultimately relies. The world could have done perfectly well without me in 2020, but it could not have done without them. The issue of inequality is not going to go away any time soon. 2020 also revealed new problems associated with actually-existingglobalisation . In the early months of the pandemic firms found it difficult to source components from China. Later, there were well-publicised problems associated with obtaining medical supplies. The concept of the spring was resilience – was our system capable of coping with very large and unexpected shocks? The market economy is very good at minimising costs, but that can become problematic when doing so involves putting all one’s eggs in one low-cost basket. Similarly, attempts by national governments to maximise efficiency and minimise costs when it comes to the provision of national health services may make sense in normal times, but become a major problem when a major shock arises and there is no surplus capacity available. In the event, the market adjusted remarkably quickly, and stories about scarce medical supplies faded away. But the events of the last year lent support to those...