The World Food Problem: Four Recent Empirical Studies

Abstract

T HE PURPOSE of this note is to compare the methodology and projections of four recent studies of world food trends. The focus is upon food demand and supply in the developing countries. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) report, Agricultural Commodities-Projections for 1975 and 1985 [15], was an exhaustive base study. It stressed the importance of concessional food shipments and the potential for increased trade of agricultural commodities among developing countries. Since many developing countries are presently striving for some degree of self-sufficiency in food production [17, p. 22], the potential for food aid and increased food trade appears to be much less promising than depicted by FAO. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report, The Food Problem of Developing Countries [11], focused on developmental assistance. It asserted that agricultural commercialization is a capital intensive process; consequently, the capital shortages and generally unfavorable man-land ratios in the developing countries give them little potential for agricultural modernization. It argued that the comparative advantage of most underdeveloped countries in international trade is in labor-intensive manufacturing. Its focus on the necessity for a capital intensive agricultural sector ignores the labor intensive agricultural development process in both Japan and Taiwan [6, 7]. The stress on man-land ratios similarly ignores the potential of inputs such as the combination of fertilizer and fertilizer-responsive seed varieties to substitute for land. Also, the assumption that developing countries will have increasing access to the markets of developed countries to sell their manufactured goods appears implausible. The President's Science Advisory Committee (PSAC) report, The World Food Problem: A Report of the Panel on the World Food Supply