Abstract
•Euroland will start in 1999 with interest rates around 3.75 per cent, growth of 2.6 per cent and subdued inflation.•Economies on the periphery of the Euro-zone are diverging sharply from those in the core.•Japan's Y16 trillion fiscal package will lift output by under 1 per cent in 1998 and 0.5 per cent in 1999.•A clean-up of the Japanese financial sector is needed to restore consumer confidence and allow a sustained recovery.•Asian export recovery has been delayed because of the Japanese downturn and difficulties in restoring trade finance.•US interest rates will remain on hold as buoyant domestic demand is offset by the disinflationary impact of the Asian crisis.
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