Abstract

The cereal leaf beetle (Oulema melanopus (L)) is a recently introduced pest of small grains in the North-central Region of the United States. This paper describes a simulation model of the within-field dynamics of this pest, some of its 'predators' and the host plants (oats and wheat) as affected by weather throughout the entire year. The model is deterministic, except for a stochastic weather component which is used to estimate weather for short periods in the future, based on long-term mean maximum and minimum temperatures, mean rainfall and mean probability of rain (plus their respective standard deviations) (cf. Gutierrez et al. 1974). A summary of the data and a copy of the model programmed in FORTRAN IV plus additional notes on its construction and use may be obtained from the first author. The notes amplify technical details that cannot be mentioned in a paper of reasonable length.

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