The “winter predictability barrier” for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: Results from a fully coupled GCM

Abstract

AbstractWithin the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1) coupled model, we find that the winter predictability barrier (WPB) exists in both the growing and decaying phases of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events, due to the effects of initial errors. The physical mechanism of the WPB, in which the initial errors show a significant seasonal‐dependent evolution with the fastest error growth in winter, is explored from the dynamical and thermodynamical viewpoints. In terms of dynamics, in the growing phase of pure positive IOD events, the vertical temperature advection associated with the reference state IOD events plays a dominant role in advancing the fastest error growth in winter; in terms of thermodynamics, the latent heat flux error and the shortwave radiation error lead to the fastest error growth in winter and favor the occurrence of the WPB. In the decaying phase of pure positive IOD events, the occurrence of the WPB is mainly due to the latent heat flux error since the dynamics play an insignificant role in advancing the fast error growth in winter. For positive IOD events accompanied by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the physical mechanism of the WPB is similar to that for pure positive IOD events in both the growing and decaying phases, except that the shortwave radiation error has a different effect on the error growth in winter, which may be closely related to the perturbed atmospheric circulation in the tropical Indian Ocean associated with ENSO.