The winds of change: How wind firms assess Germany's energy transition

Abstract

In September 2010 the German government initiated a plan to shift from fossil fuels to renewable energies, with nuclear power as a bridging fuel. Following the Fukushima nuclear disaster, however, the government decided to immediately shut down almost half of Germany's reactors and phase out the rest by 2022. The outcome of Germany's energy transition (Energiewende) from high-carbon and nuclear sources of power to renewable energies has implications for Germany's prosperity and may serve as either a positive or negative model for other countries. Achieving the Energiewende will require the commitment of Germany's renewable energy companies, whose opinions on the transition have not yet been reported. This article seeks to help fill this gap by relating the views of over 80 percent of Germany's wind industry, per market share. The firms in our study are mostly optimistic about the government's ambitious targets, but express concern over the prospects for offshore wind, lagging network expansion, and the efficacy of extant legislation to support the transition. From the government's side, cost concerns have already led to discussions of slowing the transition, leading to a push–pullback policy approach. For the transition to proceed smoothly, fundamental issues, such as market design, must be resolved.