The West, Russia and European security: Still the long peace?

Andrew Cottey

doi:10.1177/13691481211036381

Abstract

Against the background of increased tensions between the West and Russia, this article assesses the prospects for continued peace in Europe. The end of the East-West conflict upended the Cold War rules of the game in Europe’s east, creating an enduring source of conflict. Balanced against this, however, are a range of factors which act as powerful bulwarks against war: a European balance of power best characterised as modified bipolarity, the continued pacifying effect of nuclear weapons, energy interdependence between Russia and Europe, the deterrent effect of the likely consequences of any extended conventional war, and the continuing impact of the post-1945 satellite reconnaissance revolution. Post-Cold War Western and Russian crisis behaviour also suggests important elements of restraint and mutual communication. Despite the downturn in Russo-Western relations, one can be cautiously optimistic that the long peace in Europe will continue.

Highlights

The downturn in relations between the West and Russia in recent years, which some describe as a new Cold War (Legvold, 2016), has led to renewed concern about the possibility of major war in Europe
Since the conflict over Ukraine in 2014, most of the institutional ties between the West and Russia that were put in place in the 1990s and 2000s have been frozen or abandoned, the United States and the European Union (EU) have imposed financial and other sanctions on Russia, and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia have intensified military deployments and planning for a possible war with one another
Some observers have warned of scenarios involving war between Russia and NATO which could escalate to the use of nuclear weapons (British Broadcasting Corporation, 2016; Shirreff, 2016)

Summary

Introduction

The downturn in relations between the West and Russia in recent years, which some describe as a new Cold War (Legvold, 2016), has led to renewed concern about the possibility of major war in Europe. The following sections examine three factors that I argue make war between the West and Russia in Europe unlikely: the contemporary European balance of power, which is best characterised as modified bipolarity and has important stabilising consequences; the continuing pacifying impact of nuclear weapons; and the energy relationship between Russia and the West, which is best understood as one of interdependence (rather than simple Western dependence on Russia).

Results

Conclusion