The West German Defense Policy Consensus: Stable or Eroding?

Abstract

The authors examine changes in the fundamental assumptions of West German defense policy, as well as important domestic political factors which influence that policy. Alliance fears that the FRG might withdraw from NATO, adopt a "social defense," dismantle the Federal army, or evict U.S. troops are unfounded. But the West German defense policy consensus has eroded in some respects. The perception that the Soviet Union poses a military threat to the FRG has become weakened. Therefore, the perceived need for deterrence, especially nuclear deterrence, has also lost strength. More and more West Germans are beginning to question whether key American and West German interests are still identical, and some fear that the FRG could be dragged into a war possibly set off by bellicose U.S. policy outside of Europe. The heterogeneous "peace movement" will continue to face problems in translating a longing for peace into a realistic and concrete policy for peace; however, the continuing NATO missile deployment will keep it alive for at least a while. The West German government will be compelled to pay far greater heed to domestic opinions on defense questions and to explain to the public more persuasively the necessity and rationale for the country's defense and for its military collaboration with the United States. The FRG will step up its demands for more participation in NATO decisions, and NATO will have to pay closer attention to West Germany's needs and demands. West European public opinion is powerfully influenced by official statements made in Washington. The political style and tone of American leaders are almost as important as actual policy. They should therefore avoid at all costs feeding European fears of war through statements which could easily be misinterpreted.