The Welsh Referendum and Territoriality In British Politics

Abstract

The new reality of British politics is that they are now marked by territoriality. That was confirmed by the Welsh referendum in March 2011 and the Scottish election in May 2011 The advent of devolution in Wales and Scotland in 1999 was a great historic change and a reversal of the post-1945 centalism and unionism of the United Kingdom. The effects were concealed down to 2010 with Labour or Labour-dominated governments in Westminster, Cardiff and Edinburgh. Still, devolutionist momentum went on in Scotland while the 2006 Government of Wales Act gave more direct legislative power to the Welsh Assembly. The Conservative-led coalition of May 2010 was strongly English, but there were important implications for the Celtic nations. Three major issues for Wales emerged before the election (i) The powers of the Welsh Assembly, with the Jones-Parry report calling for a referendum on primary powers.(ii) The links with Westminster with the prospect of a reduction in Welsh and Scottish seats there. (iii) resentment over the Barnett formula under which Scotland was heavily over-funded and Wales much under-funded. The Calman Commission in 2009 called for the Scottish Parliament to be granted a Scottish rate of income tax. The Holtham Commission called for similar powers for Wales.What has happened since the general election? (i) The Welsh Referendum of March saw a 63% majority for Welsh primary legislative powers and thus greater status for the Welsh Assembly, even if it remained less powerful than the Scottish Parliament. (ii) Welsh links with Westminster were seriously reduced when the Parliamentary Voting Bill cut the number of Welsh MPs by a quarter – a drop from 40 to 30. (iii) Nothing happened on Barnett, but the government’s Scotland Bill proposed income taxing powers for the Scottish Parliament, along with other powers to tax and raise loans. This was followed in late 2011 by the appointment of the Silk Commission for Wales to investigate similar powers for the Welsh Assembly. Where is Wales how heading? The Welsh referendum showed power flowing unambiguously towards a stronger Welsh Assembly. Conversely, the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections showed a marked swing to Labour who won 30 or 60 Welsh on a traditional Labour campaign and formed a new government on its own. Whereas in Scotland, the SNP won a large majority, Plaid Cymru in Wales slipped back substantially, winning only 11 seats (down 4), a result confirmed in the local elections of May 2012. Unlike Scotland, only around 5% of electors supported independence in Wales. (On the AV vote in May 2011, Wales voted the same way as England with 66% against AV). Whether we are moving towards a federal Britain remains uncertain. But ongoing pressure in Scotland for a vote for independence will surely leave its mark on Wales – and on England, too. The UK constitution is in the course of dynamic change. One of the main drivers of it is territoriality.