The weather and macroeconomic determinants of whale-watching tourism: a Markov regime-switching analysis

Abstract

Taking in sail is essential for a whale-watching excursion, which makes the demand for whale-watching tourism sensitive to the weather. The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of two potential demand-side determinants, that is, weather and macroeconomic conditions, on the business cycle of Taiwan’s whale-watching tourism industry. By exploiting a Markov regime-switching model, this study finds that temperature and relative price changes are crucial determinants of the demand for whale-watching tourism, no matter whether in the peaks or in the troughs. Nevertheless, the influences of sunshine hours, rainfall and real GDP per capita on the demand for whale-watching tourism depend heavily on the phases of business cycle. The empirical results provide some inspiration for sustainable management of Taiwan’s whale-watching tourism.