The weather and climate at select INDEPTH sites in Africa and Asia: Historical trends, future projections, and considerations for time series modeling

Abstract

Background: Research initiatives including the INDEPTH CLIMO project are extending understandings of the relationships between weather, climate, and health to new locations across the globe. In particular, research is expanding to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) whose populations may be more vulnerable to negative health outcomes associated with extreme weather and shifts in climate. Historical meteorological data and projections of future climate are critical components in estimating current and future weather-health impacts, and thus it is important for the epidemiological community to be familiar with the availability and reliability of meteorological data at these new sites as well as their climatology. Aims: To document the climate profiles of select sites within the INDEPTH Network, including a review of the availability, quality, reliability, and scale of meteorological observations and climate projections. Methods: We developed a climatology for four locations in the INDEPTH network using historical instrumental observations and reanalysis products. Where possible, we compared these two different data sources. Future trends were analyzed using global climate model projections. Results: For some locations the availability of reliable and representative meteorological records can limit confidence in estimates of weather-health relationships. The climatological profiles of the sites we examined suggest that the variables driving weather-health relationships vary from site to site. The degree of projected climate change in the sites we examined sensitive to scenario and model choice. Conclusions: Weather and climate data resources are available to support research efforts to expand collaborative climate-heath research to LMICs. Representative and reliable meteorological data are critical to the effort to help populations in these locations reduce current and future health burdens related to weather and climate.