The weak link between world food markets and world food security

Abstract

This paper suggests that changing conditions in world grain markets are not directly linked to transitory food insecurity in poor countries. The explanation advanced for this disconnection is that the reliance of genuinely poor developing countries on grain imports is usually low, and generally lower today than it was several decades ago, even when food aid is taken into account. The most conspicuous non-market sources of food insecurity include violent internal conflict, non-accountable governments and natural disasters such as drought. Violent internal conflict is increasingly the most important of these three. Where violent conflict is absent, international food relief in the face of drought is possible and often successful. Where violent conflicts continue, food relief can become impossible and unsuccessful even in the absence of drought.