The Way Toward Growth: A Time-series Factor Decomposition of Socioeconomic Impulses and Urbanization Trends in a Pre-crisis European Region

Abstract

The present study investigates long-term urbanization and suburbanization trends in a divided region of Mediterranean Europe (Attica, Greece). A time series (1965–2008) dynamic factor analysis of 14 indicators that reflect different aspects of metropolitan growth, allowed estimating the impact of economic expansion and social change on the local development path characteristic of the study area. To quantify the spatio-temporal propagation of socioeconomic impulses to local development, Attica was partitioned in two spatial domains, the ‘Greater Athens’ area (hereafter the ‘core’ district) and the rest of the metropolitan region (hereafter the ‘ring’ district). By integrating Multi-way Factor Analysis with Continuous Wavelength Transform and rapidity-of-change metrics grounded on complex thinking, the exploratory approach proposed here has delineated latent mechanisms of urban expansion, indicating substantial divergences in the development path of the two districts. While the ‘core’ district experienced population increase and settlement densification, the ‘ring’ district underwent a suburbanization process resulting in a moderate—and relatively slow—concentration of economic activities and social functions. Reflecting a non-linear propagation of growth impulses from urban to rural areas, the economic interplay between ‘core’ and ‘ring’ areas delineates a complex development path accelerating spatial polarization in central and peripheral locations. Our results definitely highlight the importance of ‘system thinking’ in regional studies, applied economics, and social research.