The way of visionaries: foresight and imagination, computed

Abstract

Do foresight and imagination change in the words of power elites? We first extract information present in stories with a text mining tool equipped with text-analytical filters, the ‘Foresight’ and ‘Imagination’ lexicons. We also convert Kermode’s views on time in novels into computable data drawn from the ‘Foresight’ lexicon. We then test these views on tales of scattered episodes—Sartre’s “Nausea” or Murdoch’s “Under the Net” for example. Our lexicons are then tested on novels showing concordance between beginning and end—James’ “The Bostonians” or Joyce’s “Ulysses”—where each episode leads to the next. The ‘Imagination’ lexicon of words that transcend time and space is tested on fantasies: such as Kerouac’s “On the Road”—a spiritual and endless search—and Rushdie’s “Midnight’s Children”, places where boundaries between the real and the unreal collapse. The last step and basic target entails rolling out each confirmed lexicon on power elites’ speeches, casting into sharp relief how foresight and imagination take shape over time. The era explored resonates with extreme events. Foresight and imagination unfold disparately in power elites. Imagination increases in the Bilderberg Reports (1954–2002), and the speeches of Pope Francis (2013–2018), President Xi (2012–2019), and President Tusk (EU Council, 2014–2018), but droops in President Draghi (ECB, 2011–2018). Foresight goes up in the Bilderberg Reports and partway in Pope Francis; it weakens in President Xi, declines in President Tusk and flattens in President Draghi. Except for the Bilderberg group, power elites do not seem to understand the present, essential for foreseeing.