Abstract
In order to study the influence of water and carbon constraint policies on coal power industry under different scenarios, the government can adjust policies timely according to the simulation results. In this paper, a system dynamics model of coal power industry development under water-carbon dual constraints is constructed. Eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin are selected as the research objects, and the year 2020 is taken as the base year and 2021–2030 is taken as the research time zone to carry out an empirical study. The results show that: (1) under the existing water and carbon quota allocation policy, the profit of coal and power industry in the Yellow River basin will decrease obviously, and the development pressure of coal and power enterprises in the Yellow River basin will increase. (2) Water-carbon constraint has obvious extrusion effect on coal power industry. According to the calculation in this paper, the extrusion capacity will reach 395.17 TWh. (3) The water and carbon quota policy does not constrain the coal power industry at the same time. The existing water quota allocation method matches the ‘2030’ water consumption target, but the carbon quota allocation scheme has weak constraint on the coal and power industry in the Yellow River Basin, so the carbon quota should be tightened. (4) After the tightening of carbon quota, the coal emission reduction technology should be upgraded and improved before 2025. After 2025, the coal emission reduction technology can be mainly restricted by quota. (5) New energy planning should be combined with its own development situation and quota allocation policy. When the amount of coal and electricity extruded by water-carbon constraint is not enough to meet the target of new energy installation, it should be planned according to its own development situation and extrusion amount. When the amount of coal power extruded by water-carbon constraint is enough to meet the target of new energy installation, the amount of coal extruded should be taken as the main planning basis.
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