The War is on 'Currency War': Its Impact on Commodities in 2016

Abstract

This paper is in continuation to paper published titled Future of Palm Oil: During the time of War (Currency War). Wherein, paper discussed How countries used & still using Monetary Tools as one of the war tactics in battlefield which is not pre-defined to protect its self interest in turn creating ripple effect in global economies, Relationship between currencies and its impact on commodities specifically to Palm Oil. Further to that Nine factors were listed out which will be key determinants in 2016 for markets and finally concluding with ECG for monitoring the health of Edible Oil & Oilseeds (i.e.) EL Nino, China & Greece. Economist John Maynard Keynes stated When the facts change, I change my mindPost paper the previous paper there has not been major change in global market dynamics, in fact market has just moved in the way it was expected and the WAR has got more intensified as more players has entered the battlefield. Adhering with Mr. Keynes statement looks like we need not change our mind yet as current markets are in sync with prognosis presented earlier. Current paper would validate the status of on-going WAR by looking in the performance of key currencies, its impact on commodities post which it would revisit Nine factors listed in previous paper & evaluate its standing in current market scenario. Finally concluding with events to be watchful about (i.e.)The return of Laden, The Japanese Way, The Limping Dragon, The Geopolitical Risk to Intensify, The Trade Flows & The Weather Risk. Concluding by analysing the market structure of palm oil thereafter estimating the price forecasts for commodities & key currencies for current year.