The war in Iraq: civilian casualties, political responsibilities

Abstract

Published online October 29, 2004 http://image.thelancet.com/extras/04cmt384web.pdf Military and public-health sciences need to allyThe UK Government mounted two challenges1 to the estimated civilian death toll in Iraq reported by Les Roberts and colleagues in today's Lancet. The researchers multiplied up from a random cluster sample to obtain population estimates of the death toll. The Government's first counter-argument—extrapolation—in effect denied statistical science and so was the wrong target. Their second—about the representativeness of clusters for air strikes versus for where the Iraqi population lives—was more telling. Full-Text PDF Mortality before and after the invasion of Iraq in 2003In this week's Lancet, Les Roberts and colleagues show that the death toll from the invasion and occupation of Iraq is about 98000 civilians, and it might be considerably higher. The deaths are mostly related to air strikes. Full-Text PDF Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample surveyMaking conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown that collection of public-health information is possible even during periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and should lead to changes to reduce non-combatant deaths from air strikes. Published online October 29,2004 http://image.thelancet.com/extras/04art10342web.pdf Full-Text PDF