The vulnerability sourcebook and climate impact chains – a standardised framework for a climate vulnerability and risk assessment

Stefan Schneiderbauer,Kerstin Fritzsche,Marc Zebisch,Philip Bubeck,Susanne Schwan,Till Below,Walter Kahlenborn,Stefan Kienberger

doi:10.1108/ijccsm-07-2019-0042

Abstract

PurposeThis paper aims to present the “Vulnerability Sourcebook” methodology, a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning. The Vulnerability Sourcebook has been developed for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and has been applied in more than twenty countries worldwide.Design/methodology/approachIt is based on a participative development of so-called climate impact chains, which are an analytical concept to better understand, systemise and prioritise the climate factors as well as environmental and socio-economic factors that drive climate related threats, vulnerabilities and risks in a specific system. Impact chains serve as the backbone for an operational climate vulnerability assessment with indicators based on quantitative approaches (data, models) combined with expert assessments. In this paper, the authors present the concept and applications of the original Vulnerability Sourcebook, published in 2015, which was based on the IPCC AR4 concept of climate vulnerability. In Section 6 of this paper, the authors report how this concept has been adapted to the current IPCC AR5 concept of climate risks.FindingsThe application of the Sourcebook is demonstrated in three case studies in Bolivia, Pakistan and Burundi. The results indicate that particularly the participative development of impact chains helped with generating a common picture on climate vulnerabilities and commitment for adaptation planning within a region. The mixed methods approach (considering quantitative and qualitative information) allows for a flexible application in different contexts. Challenges are mainly the availability of climate (change) and socio-economic data, as well as the transparency of value-based decisions in the process.Originality/valueThe Vulnerability Sourcebook offers a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning.

Highlights

This paper aims to present the “Vulnerability Sourcebook” methodology, a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning
Why a generic approach for a vulnerability assessment? With the increasingly adverse effects of climate change, especially in developing and least developed countries (LDC) (Field et al, 2014), adaptation to climate change stands high on the agenda of national and international programs
Already in 2010, the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) initiated the National Adaptation Plan processes (NAP) (UNFCCC, 2013), which aims at reducing the vulnerability of respective countries and most vulnerable groups by addressing medium- and long-term adaptation needs

Summary

Introduction

This paper aims to present the “Vulnerability Sourcebook” methodology, a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning. Only a few potential impacts can be assessed through existing models (e.g. in hydrology) in most cases appropriate indicators have to be identified for all relevant factors of the impact chains and connected to the three components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity).

Results

Conclusion