The Vulnerability of Malagasy Protected Areas in the Face of Climate Change

Abstract

This study examines the vulnerability of Madagascar’s protected areas (PAs) to climate change, focusing on climate change velocity, and its impact on biodiversity. We analyzed current and near future climate data using principal component analysis (PCA) and climate change velocity metrics to predict shifts in climatic conditions from the present to the near future, while under the mild and extreme emission scenarios (SSP 126, SSP 585). Forward velocities, which are characterized by the minimum distances that must be overcome by species to keep in track with their appropriate comparative climate, are most pronounced in western and southern Madagascar. In contrast, the backward velocity, which uses future climatic conditions in grid cells in comparison to current conditions, is more common in the eastern regions of the island, and hints at the minimum distance that organisms would have to overcome in colonizing a new habitat. Even though the correlations between PA size and climate change velocity are weak, there is a tendency for larger PAs to exhibit more stable climatic conditions. Conservation strategies must prioritize enhancing the resilience of PAs through adaptive management to mitigate climate impacts. Our findings provide crucial insights for policymakers and conservation planners to develop climate-smart strategies that ensure the long-term efficacy of Madagascar’s PA network.