The vulnerability of agricultural and livestock systems to climate variability: using dynamic system models in the Rancheria upper basin (Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta)

Abstract

When you are defining the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems it is vital to identify production systems that may collapse because of climate change or land degradation. This study explores these challenges by analysing the effect of a range of external pressures on the vulnerability of agricultural systems in the upper basin of the Rancheria River (Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta Biosphere Reserve [BR], Colombia). Models of dynamic system approaches were made to understand how communities became vulnerable to global change. We evaluated the change in external pressures, such as the ability of different agro-ecosystems to tolerate climate variability, the ability of rural communities to adapt to climate variability based on their access to resources, and the institutions and policies to deal with the crisis of socio-political governance. Existing ecological and participatory research findings were reassessed along with data gathered from farming activities. We followed an iterative process explaining how external drivers led to changes in agro-ecosystem resilience, access to resources and the ability of institutions to buffer the system. Causal loop diagrams and statistical dynamic system models were used to express key quantitative relationships. Future scenarios were created to determine areas of concern most sensitive to change. Certainly the more land management knowledge and practices are shared between private and community land managers the more win-win benefits will be available to reduce system vulnerability, increase income and build social capital.