The Volatility Lowering Effects of Capital Controls

Abstract

The evidence that capital controls adversely affect cross-border trade is debatable. This study shows that capital controls may support international trade by mitigating the negative effect of macroeconomic volatility. We use quarterly data from a sample of 25 emerging countries over the period 2011–2019. Using long- and short-standing capital control dynamic panel models, and diversifying robust estimation techniques, our results show that capital controls alleviate the adverse effects of the exchange rate, interest rate differential, and inflation volatilities. The long-lasting capital controls (walls) are more effective than short-lasting capital controls (gates). Besides, the effects of these controls are asymmetric regarding the financial development level and category of flows. The study highlights the beneficial role of macroprudential policy in supporting capital control actions. The results of this study have two main policy implications, the effectiveness of “walls” controls and the importance of macroeconomic policy coordination.