THE VERY RAPID INCREASE OF JAPANESE TOURISTS ABROAD AND THE ROLE OF NATIONAL WEALTH

Abstract

The strong performance of the Japanese economy, rising stock and land prices in Japan, as well as the strong yen, have prompted Japanese to travel abroad in ever increasing numbers in recent years. Despite several obstacles against growth, such as limited vacation time for employees of Japanese corporations, relatively expensive airline tickets, capacity limitations of international airports in Japan, booming resort development in Japan itself, and imposed constraints on Japanese direct investment abroad, Japanese travelers abroad, the majority of whom are tourists, increased from less than five million in 1985 to almost 10 million in 1989. The traditional demand function based on income and price may not explain all of the growth of Japanese overseas tourism, since some of the increase in Japanese travelers may stem from increases in expected future income based on increased wealth. This wealth effect hypothesis is tested using a log‐linear regression model. It is found that wealth is a better predictor of overseas tourism levels than income. The effect of wealth increases on overseas tourism is also found to have a lag time of about one year. For this reason, it is proposed that the slowing in the Japanese economy this year will negatively impact Japanese overseas tourism next year.