The variant-specific burden of SARS-CoV-2 in Michigan: March 2020 through November 2021.

Abstract

Accurate estimates of the total burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) are needed to inform policy, planning, and response. We sought to quantify SARS‐CoV‐2 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by age in Michigan. Coronavirus disease 2019 cases reported to the Michigan Disease Surveillance System were multiplied by age and time‐specific adjustment factors to correct for under‐detection. Adjustment factors were estimated in a model fit to incidence data and seroprevalence estimates. Age‐specific incidence of SARS‐CoV‐2 hospitalization, death, vaccination, and variant proportions were estimated from publicly available data. We estimated substantial under‐detection of infection that varied by age and time. Accounting for under‐detection, we estimate the cumulative incidence of infection in Michigan reached 75% by mid‐November 2021, and over 87% of Michigan residents were estimated to have had ≥1 vaccination dose and/or previous infection. Comparing pandemic waves, the relative burden among children increased over time. In general, the proportion of cases who were hospitalized or who died decreased over time. Our results highlight the ongoing risk of periods of high SARS‐CoV‐2 incidence despite widespread prior infection and vaccination. This underscores the need for long‐term planning for surveillance, vaccination, and other mitigation measures amidst continued response to the acute pandemic.