The Variability and Predictability of Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium

Abstract

Abstract The variability and predictability of axisymmetric hurricanes are determined from a 500-day numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone in statistical equilibrium. By design, the solution is independent of the initial conditions and environmental variability, which isolates the “intrinsic” axisymmetric hurricane variability. Variability near the radius of maximum wind is dominated by two patterns: one associated primarily with radial shifts of the maximum wind, and one primarily with intensity change at the time-mean radius of maximum wind. These patterns are linked to convective bands that originate more than 100 km from the storm center and propagate inward. Bands approaching the storm produce eyewall replacement cycles, with an increase in storm intensity as the secondary eyewall contracts radially inward. A dominant time period of 4–8 days is found for the convective bands, which is hypothesized to be determined by the time scale over which subsidence from previous bands suppresses convection; a leading-order estimate based on the ratio of the Rossby radius to band speed fits the hypothesis. Predictability limits for the idealized axisymmetric solution are estimated from linear inverse modeling and analog forecasts, which yield consistent results showing a limit for the azimuthal wind of approximately 3 days. The optimal initial structure that excites the leading pattern of 24-h forecast-error variance has largest azimuthal wind in the midtroposphere outside the storm and a secondary maximum just outside the radius of maximum wind. Forecast errors grow by a factor of 24 near the radius of maximum wind.