The value of unprotected land for future conservation efforts under dynamic conditions

Abstract

Landscape dynamics pose substantial challenges to biodiversity conservation and could compromise the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs). Multiple interacting drivers of landscape dynamics, including land-cover change, wildfire, and climate change, are usually studied separately. This limits our ability to respond effectively to conservation needs through appropriate measures.Using Catalonia (North-east Spain) as a case study, we evaluated the future representativeness of PAs in covering the distributions of bird species of conservation interest under the effects of different global change drivers and identified priority areas for their conservation in the future. We also evaluated the role of different global change drivers in defining future conservation needs.Under current management practices, land-cover change appears to be a more relevant driver than climate change. Forested habitats are predicted to increase at the expense of early successional habitats, and it appears that fires will not compensate for this loss by creating new early successional habitats. Consequently, early successional species are likely to suffer the greatest decline in distribution. Consequently, additional priority for future management should be given to the last available early successional habitats, mainly outside PAs, as their selection will be marginally driven by climate change or wildfires.The conservation of early successional habitats in the European Union can benefit from existing policies, particularly the 2030 Biodiversity Strategy or the Common Agriculture Policy. However, further evaluation is needed to explore whether these policies are suitable under dynamic landscape conditions or if new policy is needed to ensure effective conservation efforts.