THE VALUE OF TREADMILL EXERCISE TEST PARAMETERS TO PREDICT THE MARATHON PERFORMANCE OF YOUNG AND MIDDLE-AGED RECREATIONAL ATHLETES IN CHINA

Abstract

Objectives: This study will evaluate the results of parameters measured during a treadmill exercise test to predict marathon performances. Methods: We studied 171 Chinese recreational athletes who participated in marathons or half-marathons (42.2[Formula: see text]k or 21.1[Formula: see text]k, respectively) between October 2016 and December 2017. The participants completed a survey that included questions about demographics and training, and they underwent a treadmill exercise test according to the Bruce protocol. The number of years in training, mean weekly hours of training, mean weekly training volume, and performance time in subsequent marathon events were recorded and analyzed in this study. Results: The total exercise times achieved on the treadmill test were significantly longer for men compared to women ([Formula: see text]). The performance times in the half-marathons were significantly shorter for men compared to women ([Formula: see text]). Training volume was the only independent predictor of total exercise time on the treadmill and performance time in marathons and half-marathons (all [Formula: see text]). The value of the total exercise time on the treadmill to predict performance times in half-marathons ([Formula: see text]) was superior to full marathons ([Formula: see text]) and significantly better in study subjects aged 30–39 years ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) and 40–49 years ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) compared to study subjects aged 20–29 years and 50–59 years. The percentage of decrease in the maximal heart rate (MHR) at the end of one minute of recovery time was negatively correlated with performance times in marathons. Conclusions: The total exercise time achieved during an exhaustive treadmill exercise test and percentage of decrease in the MHR at the end of one minute of recovery time are accessible parameters that can help athletes manage their expectations and adjust their training plans. A large study that includes additional countries is needed to confirm the value of treadmill exercise test results for predicting marathon performance.