The value of the three-point index in predicting redisplacement of diaphyseal fractures of the forearm in children

Abstract

Redisplacement is the most common complication of immobilisation in a cast for the treatment of diaphyseal fractures of the forearm in children. We have previously shown that the three-point index (TPI) can accurately predict redisplacement of fractures of the distal radius. In this prospective study we applied this index to assessment of diaphyseal fractures of the forearm in children and compared it with other cast-related indices that might predict redisplacement. A total of 76 children were included. Their ages, initial displacement, quality of reduction, site and level of the fractures and quality of the casting according to the TPI, Canterbury index and padding index were analysed. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate risk factors for redisplacement. A total of 18 fractures (24%) redisplaced in the cast. A TPI value of > 0.8 was the only significant risk factor for redisplacement (odds ratio 238.5 (95% confidence interval 7.063 to 8054.86); p < 0.001). The TPI was far superior to other radiological indices, with a sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 97% in successfully predicting redisplacement. We recommend it for routine use in the management of these fractures in children.