The value of perfect and imperfect information in lake monitoring and management

Salme Kärkkäinen,Kristian Meissner,Vilja Koski,Juha Karvanen,Heikki Hämäläinen,Niina Kotamäki

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138396

Salme Kärkkäinen, Kristian Meissner + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138396

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Abstract

Uncertainty in the information obtained through monitoring complicates decision making about aquatic ecosystems management actions. We suggest the value of information (VOI) to assess the profitability of paying for additional monitoring information, when taking into account the costs and benefits of monitoring and management actions, as well as associated uncertainty. Estimating the monetary value of the ecosystem needed for deriving VOI is challenging. Therefore, instead of considering a single value, we evaluate the sensitivity of VOI to varying monetary value. We also extend the VOI analysis to the more realistic context where additional information does not result in perfect, but rather in imperfect information on the true state of the environment. Therefore, we analytically derive the value of perfect information in the case of two alternative decisions and two states of uncertainty. Second, we describe a Monte Carlo type of approach to evaluate the value of imperfect information about a continuous classification variable. Third, we determine confidence intervals for the VOI with a percentile bootstrap method. Results for our case study on 144 Finnish lakes suggest that generally, the value of monitoring exceeds the cost. It is particularly profitable to monitor lakes that meet the quality standards a priori, to ascertain that expensive and unnecessary management can be avoided. The VOI analysis provides a novel tool for lake and other environmental managers to estimate the value of additional monitoring data for a particular, single case, e.g. a lake, when an additional benefit is attainable through remedial management actions.

Highlights

Human-induced stress and disturbances threaten inland and coastal waters more severely than many other ecosystem types (Sala et al, 2000)
We aim to use the value of information (VOI) analysis to assess the worth of the additional information needed to gain a more reliable estimate of the ecological status of a water body when there is already a preconception about its true status. We show that both perfect information as well as imperfect information approach can be used to evaluate the value of additional monitoring data
Using four monetary values v(x, a) given in Table 2 and when a priori we are more certain that a lake is in target status (p^ðx1Þ 1⁄4 0:8), the expected values of two alternative actions a0 and a1, E(v(x, a0)) and E(v(x, a1)), are equal

Summary

Introduction

Human-induced stress and disturbances threaten inland and coastal waters more severely than many other ecosystem types (Sala et al, 2000). Dedicated legislation, such as the Clean Water Act (CWA) in the U.S and the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) (European Parliament, 2000) have been adopted to protect the ecological structure of inland and coastal aquatic ecosystems, to secure their functioning and provisioning of ecosystem services. Under the WFD, assessing the ecological status that identifies possible management needs and subsequent restoration measures, requires extensive monitoring programs that produce reliable data for decision making. The value of information (VOI) analysis can be a useful approach to control for that uncertainty and to assess concretely how much it is profitable to pay for monitoring

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